Science Desk, Nov 13 (EFE).- Scientists have projected that global CO2 emissions, including those from fossil fuels, will hit 41.6 billion tons this year, marking a new record and highlighting an increasingly grim outlook for global pollution levels.
The annual Global Carbon Budget report, which provides a comprehensive view of the global carbon cycle, is based on data that tracks reforestation rates, fossil fuel consumption, and the capacity of natural carbon sinks, such as plants and oceans.
The data, compiled by 86 organizations across 19 countries, was published in the journal Earth System Science Data, coinciding with the Climate Summit (COP29) held in Baku from Nov. 11 to 22.
Pep Canadell, Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project, said in a briefing that, despite advances in clean energy, rising natural gas and oil consumption have pushed fossil CO2 emissions to 37.4 billion tons this year, a 0.8 percent increase from 2023.
Meanwhile, CO2 emissions from land-use changes, such as deforestation, remain substantial, with emissions expected to reach 4.2 billion tons this year. Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo together contribute 60 percent of these emissions.
The total emissions for 2024 are projected to reach 41.6 billion tons, up from 40.6 billion tons in 2023.
By year-end, atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach 422.5 parts per million, a level 52 percent higher than pre-industrial levels, marking a potentially dangerous threshold.
If emissions continue at their current rate, there is a 50 percent chance that the global average temperature could exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius limit within six years, underscoring the urgent need to reduce emissions.
The absorption capacity of natural carbon sinks is expected to recover in 2024, after a nearly 40 percent reduction in 2023 due to the El Niño phenomenon, wildfires in Canada and Brazil, and droughts in the Amazon. These natural sinks absorb nearly half of global CO2 emissions.
The report predicts continued growth in fossil fuel emissions in 2024, with natural gas use rising by 2.4 percent and oil consumption increasing by 0.9 percent, partly due to an uptick in aviation activity. Oil contributes one-third of global emissions, while natural gas accounts for 21 percent.
Coal, which accounts for 41 percent of global emissions, is expected to grow only slightly by 0.2 percent, while emissions from cement, which make up four percent of the total, are projected to decrease.
Region-wise, CO2 emissions are expected to decrease in Europe by 3.8 percent and in the United States by 0.6 percent in 2024. However, emissions are to increase by 4.6 percent in India, 0.2 percent in China, and 1.1 percent across the rest of the world, which accounts for 38 percent of global emissions. EFE
ecg/bks/sc