By Antonio Torres del Cerro
Paris (EFE).- The announcement on Monday that Prime Minister François Bayrou will face a vote of confidence on Sep. 8, which could result in the collapse of his government, has put France again on the brink of a political crisis.
Bayrou justified his risky manoeuvre to win the approval of the French parliament for his austerity plan, which foresees savings of 44 billion euros in 2026. It also allows him to anticipate the effects of the first principal social mobilization against the plan, scheduled on Sep. 10.
“If it has a majority, the government is confirmed. If not, the government falls,” the prime minister summarized laconically.
In his nine months in office, he has registered very low popularity ratings.
Considering that the centrists and conservatives who support the prime minister lack an absolute majority, the possibility of this scenario is likely since Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) announced they would vote against Bayrou’s confidence in the National Assembly.
The markets have taken the possible consequences of the vote seriously. The main index of the Paris Stock Exchange, the CAC 40, fell by 1.59%.
The French risk premium (the extra return that investors demand to compensate for the higher risk of investing in French assets compared to Germany, which serves as a benchmark) increased by 5.2 basis points to reach 75.2.
This means that France must pay interest of 3.507% on its 10-year debt, compared to Spain’s 3.368%, which has a risk premium of 61.1 points.
Appearing before the media alongside his government ministers, Bayrou insisted that a “clarification” was needed on the budgetary situation and how to correct it. He added that this should be done in “Parliament” and not in the street protests of Sep. 10.
Aware of his lack of a clear majority, the head of government attempted to justify the vote of confidence, which could lead to the government falling and subsequent instability, by arguing that doing nothing would be riskier.
According to Bayrou, a new political crisis is necessary for the French to recognize the gravity of the situation, following the crisis experienced in 2024 when early legislative elections were called after the pro-Macron movement suffered a setback in the European elections.
However, he said that he was willing to meet with all parliamentary groups, yet warned that he would not abandon the adjustment plan proposed in July, which includes freezing certain benefits, cutting social programs, and, perhaps most controversially, abolishing two public holidays.
The objective is to begin reducing the public deficit, which has soared in recent years, reaching 5.8% of gross domestic product in 2024.
The government is confident that, with the proposed measures, the deficit will decrease to 4.6% of GDP in 2026, putting it on track to reach 2.8% in 2029, which is below the 3% ceiling established in the European Union’s Stability and Growth Pact.
Marine Le Pen, in favour of a new dissolution
Le Pen, whose RN party holds the largest number of seats in the lower house, announced on X that they would vote against the government’s confidence. This puts Bayrou closer to the exit on paper.
“Only dissolution will allow the French people to decide their own destiny, and that is the solution proposed by the National Rally,” said the three-time presidential candidate.
As was foreseeable, the La France Insoumise protesters, the third largest party in parliament, confirmed their “no” to the confidence motion proposed by the head of government.
“François Bayrou has given us the date of his downfall,” declared Mathilde Panot, the leader of LFI in the National Assembly.
The key question among the other progressive forces is what the Socialist Party (PS) will do. Initially remaining silent, the PS maintained suspense, while its partners, The Greens, indicated that they would vote against the government. EFE
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