{"id":1848071,"date":"2025-05-01T17:55:39","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T15:55:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/?p=1848071"},"modified":"2025-05-28T13:29:45","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T11:29:45","slug":"tinderbox-diplomacy-why-war-stays-off-the-table-as-india-pakistan-border-heats-up","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/en\/other-news\/2025-05-01\/tinderbox-diplomacy-why-war-stays-off-the-table-as-india-pakistan-border-heats-up\/","title":{"rendered":"Tinderbox Diplomacy: Why war stays off the table as Indo-Pak border heats up"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By Indira Guerrero<br><br>New Delhi, May 1 (EFE) \u2013 A deadly attack in Kashmir has pushed India and Pakistan to the edge once again, stoking fears of military escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Yet, even as threats fly and tempers flare, both nations appear locked in a familiar cycle of provocation and restraint \u2014 one where the path to war is always visible but rarely crossed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">India swiftly blamed Pakistan for the Apr. 22 attack that killed 26 people, accusing it of orchestrating the rare assault on civilians, though it has yet to provide concrete evidence. Pakistan has categorically denied the allegation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In response, Islamabad warned that it has \u201ccredible intelligence\u201d pointing to an imminent Indian military incursion within hours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Despite this heightened rhetoric and the real risk of limited military action, analysts say a full-scale war between the nuclear-armed neighbors remains a distant scenario.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cI don\u2019t expect a large-scale war between India and Pakistan. I see continued low-level clashes instead,\u201d political analyst and former Indian government adviser Sanjaya Baru told EFE.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So why does conflict always seem to be on the brink, yet never fully explode into war?<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-1024x682.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1848184\" style=\"width:800px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-1024x682.webp 1024w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-768x511.webp 768w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-1536x1022.webp 1536w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-430x286.webp 430w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4-1200x799.webp 1200w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-4.webp 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Tensions Simmer, Escalation Lurks<\/strong><br>The India-Pakistan relationship is locked in a cycle of hostility, where each flashpoint risks spiraling out of control. The recent clashes along the Line of Control, the de facto border that divides Kashmir between the two neighbors, following the attack are the latest example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This tit-for-tat dynamic, although often contained, carries the danger of miscalculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In 2019, after a suicide bombing killed dozens of Indian paramilitary forces, India responded with airstrikes in Pakistan, triggering retaliatory action and a brief dogfight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During such crises, leaders on both sides face intense domestic pressure to project strength, fueled by nationalist sentiments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cAt best, India may attempt a limited pushback along the Line of Control, similar to what China did to India in 2020,\u201d Baru said, outlining a scenario where India could consider a tactical incursion for territorial advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/efe.com\/\/srv\/htdocs\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/rss-efeb70aadd938286c1f316e336eaa86ab8be39967b0w.webp?fit=1920%2C1278&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"People gather at the Indus River near Hyderabad, Sindh province, Pakistan, 01 May 2025. EFE-EPA\/NADEEM KHAWER\n\" style=\"width:800px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, he warned that \u201cboth countries could make grave errors if hardliners dominate the decision-making,\u201d with the risk that misjudgments under pressure could escalate into broader conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Firewalls: Nuclear Deterrence, Economic Costs<\/strong><br>There are several powerful deterrents that stand in the way of a full-scale war.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Nuclear deterrence remains the strongest brake. With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) makes any large-scale conflict potentially catastrophic for both.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Economic fallout is another constraint. A prolonged war would devastate both economies. For Pakistan, already in the grip of a financial crisis, stability is essential to sustain its bailout program with the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cIndia also doesn\u2019t want the situation to escalate too far, as that would internationalize the Kashmir issue. Meanwhile, Pakistan is grappling with internal instability\u2014from the economy to insurgency,\u201d said a political analyst based in Indian Kashmir, who asked not to be named.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large is-resized\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"682\" src=\"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-1024x682.webp\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-1848181\" style=\"width:800px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-1024x682.webp 1024w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-300x200.webp 300w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-768x511.webp 768w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-1536x1022.webp 1536w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-430x286.webp 430w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3-1200x799.webp 1200w, https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/image-3.webp 1920w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Waterfront: A New Battleground<\/strong><br>One of the most alarming developments in the latest standoff is New Delhi\u2019s move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty\u2014a decades-old agreement that governs water sharing between the two nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The rivers covered by the treaty are lifelines for Pakistan, and Islamabad has warned that any attempt by India to halt water flow would be considered an \u201cact of war.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the short-term impact of the suspension may be limited, the long-term consequences could be severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pakistan is already one of the world\u2019s most water-stressed nations. Climate change, mismanagement, and a growing population have worsened the crisis. If India withdraws from the treaty entirely, it could build new dams and divert more water for domestic use\u2014further choking Pakistan\u2019s already fragile water supply. EFE<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">sa-igr-sk<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Indira Guerrero New Delhi, May 1 (EFE) \u2013 A deadly attack in Kashmir has pushed India and Pakistan to the edge once again, stoking fears of military escalation between the nuclear-armed rivals. Yet, even as threats fly and tempers flare, both nations appear locked in a familiar cycle of provocation and restraint \u2014 one &#8230; <a title=\"Tinderbox Diplomacy: Why war stays off the table as Indo-Pak border heats up\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/pre.efe.com\/en\/other-news\/2025-05-01\/tinderbox-diplomacy-why-war-stays-off-the-table-as-india-pakistan-border-heats-up\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Tinderbox Diplomacy: Why war stays off the table as Indo-Pak border heats up\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":198164071,"featured_media":1848090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[122143],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1848071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-other-news","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v26.0 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - 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